NBA After Dark: The Contraction

[Myles Nelson]

21 teams were reported to be losing money during the 2011 lockout. 21 NBA franchises that couldn't turn any kind of profit.

"We're losing money hand over fist," stated one owner, who was strongly pushing for major change in the new CBA. "it's ridiculous, and it's not sustainable. If we don't make money, we can't have the NBA. That's just the reality of business."

Commissioner Adam Silver had hoped the new CBA would help right the ship financially, but it didn't do enough. Teams were still losing a lot of money. And so, with a heavy heart, the commissioner signed off on contracting the league. It would go down to 25 teams, losing the New Orleans Pelicans, the Memphis Grizzlies, the Orlando Magic, the Toronto Raptors, and the Minnesota Timberwolves. There just wasn't enough money being made to keep those franchises afloat, unfortunately.

As part of the negotiations, the league moved the salary cap up to 64M, and the luxury tax up to 75M. The players from those five franchises would be entering an emergency draft pool, and teams would be able to draft them, in reverse order of record. This was to take place before the 2012 NBA draft, so that teams could prepare properly for their offseason with their new roster. The teams would not have any restrictions from the league on going over the salary cap or the luxury tax during the emergency draft. Teams would be permitted to skip their pick if they so choose, and any players not picked would go into the free agency pool (they would still be paid their salary, as if it were an amnesty clause).

With the emergency draft scheduled just a few days away, NBA franchises are hustling to do their research while fans await this once in a lifetime craze.

[Myles Nelson]

Contraction Draft Order

1. Charlotte Hornets
2. Washington Wizards
3. Cleveland Cavaliers
4. Sacramento Kings
5. Brooklyn Nets
6. Golden State Warriors
7. Detroit Pistons
8. Portland Trail Blazers
9. Milwaukee Bucks
10. Phoenix Suns
11. Houston Rockets
12. Philadelphia 76ers
13. Utah Jazz
14. Dallas Mavericks
15. New York Knicks
16. Denver Nuggets
17. Boston Celtics
18. Atlanta Hawks
19. Los Angeles Clippers
20. Los Angeles Lakers
21. Indiana Pacers
22. Miami Heat
23. Oklahoma City Thunder
24. San Antonio Spurs
25. Chicago Bulls

[Myles Nelson]

Contraction Pool Top Players

Tier 1
Dwight Howard
Kevin Love

Tier 2
Marc Gasol
Mike Conley
Rudy Gay
Andrea Bargnani
Jonas Valanciunas
Ricky Rubio

Tier 3
Demar DeRozan
Jameer Nelson
Derrick Williams
JJ Barea
Nikola Pekovic
Tony Allen
Zach Randolph

Tier 4
Jose Calderon
Ed Davis
Amir Johnson
JJ Redick
Jason Richardson
Hedo Turkoglu
Greivis Vasquez
Jarrett Jack
Luke Ridnour
Wes Johnson
Quincy Pondexter

Any player who played on these five teams during the 2011-2012 season, but had their contract expire at the end of the 2012 season, will be entered in free agency and will be treated as a normal free agent.

Who do you think these teams should draft?

[Myles Nelson]

The 2012 NBA Contraction Draft: Round 1

1. Charlotte Hornets (7-59). Key Players: Kemba Walker, Gerald Henderson, Tyrus Thomas
The Hornets need help at literally every single position except for point guard, where they believe they have found their point guard of the future in Kemba Walker. They are also now slotted for the #1 pick in the upcoming draft, as the Pelicans (who had beat them in the lottery) were no longer part of the league. This meant they had their pick of the two top players in the draft, as they could either draft the 26 year old Dwight Howard and keep Anthony Davis as a PF, or draft the 23 year old Kevin Love, move Davis to center, and have a very young big 3. What it will come down to is the contract difference between the two. Howard has only one year left on his contract, and could walk in free agency after that. Love is locked up for four more years.
The Hornets select Kevin Love

2. Washington Wizards (20-46). Key Players: John Wall, Trevor Ariza, Nene
This made the Wizards job very easy, as there were two clear players at the top of this draft before there was a bit of a drop off. With John Wall at point guard, having a dominant two way center like Dwight Howard meant that both ends of the lineup were locked down. Nene is more than capable of playing PF, and with Ariza slotted in at SF, the Wizards are looking like a dangerous team in the East.
The Wizards select Dwight Howard

3. Cleveland Cavaliers (21-45). Key Players: Kyrie Irving, Andersen Varejao, Tristan Thompson
The Cavs have one of the best young talents in the league in Kyrie Irving, who's coming off a stellar rookie year. With the 3rd pick in this upcoming draft, they are guaranteed either Bradley Beal, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, or Thomas Robinson, leaving them wide open with what they want to do with their pick here. Marc Gasol is the best player on the board, but he is 27 and may not fit their window exactly. At 25, Rudy Gay fits their window better and can play SF/PF, which allows them to be flexible with their draft. The other two players that merit serious consideration here are 26 year old Andrea Bargnani, who would be a good complement as an outside PF next to the inside combo of Thompson and Varejao, or 20 year old Jonas Valanciunas, who has the most potential out of anyone in this draft but can only play center and isn't very good right now. However, with Thompson really being more of a backup, and Irving being 20, it makes the most sense to get the young talent here.
The Cavaliers select Jonas Valanciunas

4. Sacramento Kings (22-44). Key Players: DeMarcus Cousins, Isaiah Thomas, Tyreke Evans, Marcus Thornton
Sacramento has the best young big man in the league in Cousins, and solid scorers in former ROY Evans, breakout SG Thornton, and Mr. Irrelevant Isaiah Thomas. With Thomas's size and scoring ability, he might be best served as a 6th man, though the same could be said for Thornton as well. The Kings could also use a forward, either at SF or PF. Rudy Gay seems like a decent fit here, as he's young, can play both forward spots, and is a solid two way player. On the other hand, the Kings could really use defense, and no one is better there than 24 year old Mike Conley, who is also locked up for the next 4 years at an average of 8M per year.
The Kings select Mike Conley

5. Brooklyn Nets (22-44). Key Players: Brook Lopez (RFA), Deron Williams (UFA), Marshon Brooks, Gerald Wallace
The Nets are at an interesting point, with no first round pick (their would-be 5th pick is owned by the Trail Blazers) they are certain to be looking to add an impact player to try and influence Deron Williams into returning. On the other hand, if they renounce everyone (including Williams) they could go into the offseason with around 35M in cap space and a young core of Lopez, Brooks, and whoever they pick here to build around. If they want to win now, they target Rudy Gay, who is a fantastic talent and can play both the 3 and the 4. If they start thinking about tomorrow, they go after Ricky Rubio, the best young PG who only costs 4M. The Nets owner wants to win today though, so...
The Nets select Rudy Gay

6. Golden State Warriors (23-43). Key Players: Steph Curry, Klay Thompson, David Lee, Andrew Bogut
The Warriors have a solid group of talent, with two established post players and a pair of shooters in the backcourt, some "splash brothers" if you will. Their main position of need is small forward, but unless they really believe in the potential of Derrick Williams (hint: they don't), there's no players that will fill that need worth taking here. That narrows it down to Bargnani, an offensive forward, and Marc Gasol, a two way center. They could also pick Ricky Rubio, and primarily play him at point with Curry playing PG/SG and Klay playing SG/SF. Bargnani would be redundant with David Lee on the roster, but Gasol would make for an interesting big man trio of offensive Lee, defensive Bogut, and two way Gasol.
The Warriors select Marc Gasol

7. Detroit Pistons (25-41). Key Players: Greg Monroe, Brandon Knight, Rodney Stuckey
The Pistons are certainly in a bit of a pickle here. The clear two best players available are Ricky Rubio and Andrea Bargnani, and both come with their own issues on this roster. Do the Pistons believe that Monroe can be the full time center, with Bargnani playing at PF next to him? Monroe is a talented player, but may not be good enough defensively and on the glass to overcome Bargnani's weaknesses. On the other hand, do they think Brandon Knight can be a full time SG? He's a little on the short side, and his defense might be best served facing off against opposing PGs, but he doesn't have the playmaking to be a PG on the offensive end. They could go for DeRozan or Williams, or grab a more established player like Randolph or Allen to fill the holes on their roster too.
The Pistons select Ricky Rubio

8. Portland Trail Blazers (28-38). Key Players: LaMarcus Aldridge, Nicolas Batum (RFA), Wesley Matthews
The Blazers are probably the best off of any team we've seen up to this point, with solid talent at both forward spots, a 3&D wing in Wesley Matthews, and a decent point guard with Ray Felton. They could take a flyer on young talent that could play well as a backup, such as DeRozan or Williams, or they could fill the hole at center with Nikola Pekovic, who is only under contract for one year at 5M. They could also get Bargnani as a backup PF, and play him alongside Aldridge if they slide Aldridge to center at times, but that doesn't really make sense.
The Blazers select Nikola Pekovic

9. Milwaukee Bucks (31-35). Key Players: Monta Ellis, Brandon Jennings, Ersan Ilyasova (UFA), Samuel Dalembert
The Bucks have some decent talent, but definitely need a difference maker on their squad, as they don't have any. They have quite a bit of salary flexibility, and with Dalembert and Ekpe Udoh holding down the center position, they have a good amount of defense and rebounding. With that in mind, the Bucks take the best scorer left in the contraction draft, and giving themselves some insurance in case Ilyasova decides to leave.
The Bucks select Andrea Bargnani

10. Phoenix Suns (33-33). Key Players: Steve Nash (UFA), Marcin Gortat, Jared Dudley, Channing Frye
As sad as it is to say, it is probably time for the Suns to reload and try to build a winner for the future. Nash is too old to continue carrying this team, and without any other strong offensive talents around him, it would be near impossible for the Suns to continue being a winner solely on the backs of Nash. The Suns just need to take the best player available that's young, but the question remains as to who that is? DeRozan is the better scorer, but Williams shows more all around talent.
The Suns select Derrick Williams

11. Houston Rockets (34-32). Key Players: Kevin Martin, Luis Scola, Kyle Lowry, Goran Dragic (UFA), Courtney Lee (RFA)
The Rockets have a lot of solid role players, but no star to elevate them to the next level. Unfortunately, at this point in the draft, the only player who represents a distinct upgrade currently is Zach Randolph, who comes at a heavy price. The Rockets have always been a team looking for high upside, and with no other player in the draft matching him talent wise, the Rockets elect for BPA, not fit.
The Rockets select Demar DeRozan

12. Philadelphia 76ers (35-31). Key Players: Andre Iguodala, Jrue Holiday, Lou Williams, Nikola Vucevic
The 76ers are another team with a lot of decent players but no stars. Their front court is considerably weaker than their perimeter players, and with Elton Brand's 18M contract coming off the books next season, they have a very obvious choice here.
The 76ers select Zach Randolph

13. Utah Jazz (36-30). Key Players: Al Jefferson, Paul Millsap, Derrick Favors, Gordon Hayward
This team might have the best frontcourt in the NBA, and they have a whole lot of nothing in the backcourt. They desperately need a quality shooting guard, or a playmaker at point. Jameer Nelson, JJ Barea, Jose Calderon or even Jarrett Jack might fit here, but so might Tony Allen. This team already has plenty of defense but Allen is the elite kind of defender any type of team would love to have. Utah already has a pretty elite defense though, so their need for a steady hand at point might overcome Allen's talent.
The Jazz select Jose Calderon

14. Dallas Mavericks (36-30). Key Players: Dirk Nowitzki, Shawn Marion, Jason Terry (UFA), Jason Kidd (UFA)
The Mavericks just keep doing the same thing they do every year, compete despite getting up there in age. Mark Cuban always wants to compete around Dirk, so you know they will add the best talent. With Nowitzki single-handedly creating a great offense every year, it's pretty clear that the Mavericks could use defensive role players to put around him.
The Mavericks select Tony Allen

15. New York Knicks (36-30). Key Players: Carmelo Anthony, Amare Stoudemire, Tyson Chandler, Jeremy Lin (UFA)
The Knicks have all the star power between Anthony and Stoudemire (and to a more entertaining extent, Linsanity), and even a solid post defender in Tyson Chandler, but they really lacked the support around those stars to be a great team. The Knicks (and Carmelo for that matter) have always been best with a floor general at point guard, so if they decide to bring Lin back, they can use him in a 6th man role as they'll be able to have a true lead guard to get Carmelo and Amare the ball just where they like it.
The Knicks select Jameer Nelson

16. Denver Nuggets (38-28). Key Players: Danilo Gallinari, Ty Lawson, Javale McGee (RFA)
The Nuggets are a pretty well rounded team, with Kenneth Faried, Wilson Chandler, and Arron Afflalo in addition to the three key players listed above. Other than missing a true superstar, what they could use is defense on the wing, or a true scoring threat down low. Quincy Pondexter would make sense for them, as he is a serious 3&D player, they could also go for Wes Johnson or Al-Farouq Aminu, young wing defenders with upside. Jarrett Jack might not be a bad idea either, he could backup both Lawson and Afflalo reasonably well.
The Nuggets select Jarrett Jack

17. Boston Celtics (39-27). Key Players: Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett (UFA), Rajon Rondo, Ray Allen (UFA)
The Celtics actually come into this offseason with very few players under contract. Besides Pierce and Rondo, the only other players already signed for next season are Brandon Bass, top young defender Avery Bradley, and Jajuan Johnson. They could use a center something awful, though perhaps a shooter in case Ray Allen walks would be a good choice here. JJ Redick, Jason Richardson, and Hedo Turkoglu are all elite shooters, and Quincy Pondexter isn't shabby either. Ed Davis and Amir Johnson aren't strictly centers, but both can rebound well and Johnson plays defense. Also available is Jason Smith, a cheap, unassuming center who does the dirty work.
The Celtics select JJ Redick

18. Atlanta Hawks (40-26). Key Players: Joe Johnson, Josh Smith, Al Horford
The Hawks have some fantastic, albeit expensive, talent. Jeff Teague has been a solid young point guard for them as well, so what they really need at this moment is a forward or center to play alongside Smith and Horford in the frontcourt. Amir Johnson makes a lot of sense here, as Horford isn't the greatest rebounder, but is Smith best at SF or PF? If he needs to play PF, then that would make Pondexter, Wesley Johnson, or Turkoglu the natural choices here. With the Hawks capped out for the foreseeable future (handicapped by Johnson and Horford's large contracts), they need to go for the biggest impact player here.
The Hawks select Hedo Turkoglu

19. Los Angeles Clippers (40-26). Key Players: Chris Paul, Blake Griffin, Deandre Jordan
Lob City is alive and well in Clippertown, and the Clippers need role players to place around their stars to help them succeed. They lack SG and SF the most, with no real SGs currently on the roster (they have the bird rights to Nick Young at least) and only Caron Butler at SF. Jason Richardson would be a real talent on the wing, and would certainly make the most impact out of anyone left.
The Clippers select Jason Richardson

20. Los Angeles Lakers (41-25). Key Players: Kobe Bryant, Pau Gasol, Andrew Bynum
The Lakers have top end talent at three of the five positions (Kobe and Bynum have legitimate claim to being the best player at their position, Gasol is top 5) and one of the best defenders at SF. They have always lacked a difference maker at point guard though, and even though Ramon Sessions did admirably for them, he's not a sure thing. Why not get the guy that torched the Lakers two playoffs prior?
The Lakers select JJ Barea

21. Indiana Pacers (42-24). Key Players: Danny Granger, Paul George, Roy Hibbert (RFA), David West
With George Hill being an RFA as well, the Pacers have a legitimate chance of having an incredibly talented and balanced starting 5. Every single one of those players is an above average player at their position (Hill is probably closer to average as a PG, but he's certainly an above average 5th starter). With Barbosa set to come off the books, they'll have the cap space to add a quality player this offseason. With that in mind, they'll want to add the cheapest quality player they can. They can either add a backup big man in Ed Davis, who is still on his rookie contract and can play both PF and C. They could also add Greivis Vasquez, who is only making 1.9M and can play both PG and SG fairly well offensively.
The Pacers select Greivis Vasquez

22. Miami Heat (46-20). Key Players: LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh
The Heatles are always looking to add talent on the edges, whether that's a point guard who can play off ball and defend, or a center who can catch lobs and protect the rim. Ed Davis is still available, as is Amir Johnson, as small centers who will do the dirty work. Ridnour has the jumper to be an off ball point guard.
The Heat select Ed Davis

23. Oklahoma City Thunder (47-19). Key Players: Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, James Harden, Serge Ibaka
The Thunder desperately need a center (as does every team so far it feels like) and also lack depth at every position. Outside of Thabo Sefolosha, they really don't have any quality role players. With a team like this though, you don't really need quality backups since their best players will be on the court most of the game. Having another solid big man would make the most sense here.
The Thunder select Amir Johnson

24. San Antonio Spurs (50-16). Key Players: Tim Duncan, Tony Parker, Manu Ginobili
The Spurs have always been built on playing as a team, playing sound defense, and taking great shots. Who better in that style of play (and to fill the Bruce Bowen role) than the 3&D player still available?
The Spurs select Quincy Pondexter

25. Chicago Bulls (50-16). Key Players: Derrick Rose, Joakim Noah, Luol Deng, Carlos Boozer
The Bulls are such a fantastic team, it's hard to find somewhere to help them. They have defense, they have shooting, they have one of the best creators in the league. They have solid backups at every single position, and their one free agent that they would hate to lose is an RFA (Omer Asik). Best choice here for them is a young player with upside that doesn't cost much. Low risk, medium reward as it were.
The Bulls select Wesley Johnson

[Magic Bird]

Are you going to contract the league again in the near future? It will be interesting to see how the league plays out the next 5-10 years with more concentrated talents.

It's been a long time since I played DDSPB3; is DeMar DeRozan not a star? If he has star potential, Houston made a steal at pick #11.

[Myles Nelson]

I won't be contracting the league again, as that is only something you can do upon league creation and not from season to season. Would certainly be an interesting way of doing things though!

As for DeRozan, he doesn't really have that star potential. From what I could see, his SCR rating was like 68 now and I think it looks like it will cap out around 76. Good enough to be a decent 2nd option or a great 3rd option. He didn't really have the peripheral ratings to look like he would turn into a defender or rebounder by any means. What it really comes down to is how efficient he is. If he can get up to 76 SCR and be really efficient, he could be a decent #2. Big ifs though.

[Magic Bird]

Well, I didn't think my question through. I was thinking that perhaps a few seasons down the road, you could export the database on June 20, arrange the columns for formatting purposes, and replace the players in the players_pre table in the default database with your exported players (Backup the default file before you modify it). Then you could create a new league file starting with the draft and continue from where you left off, but with fewer teams. By exporting on June 20, you would export the current draft class, and after cutting, copying, and pasting columns, you could modify the team ID's for the players moving from extinct teams to extant teams (Which is what I presume you did so that Kevin Love isn't a free agent).

[Myles Nelson]

Well, I didn't think my question through. I was thinking that perhaps a few seasons down the road, you could export the database on June 20, arrange the columns for formatting purposes, and replace the players in the players_pre table in the default database with your exported players (Backup the default file before you modify it). Then you could create a new league file starting with the draft and continue from where you left off, but with fewer teams. By exporting on June 20, you would export the current draft class, and after cutting, copying, and pasting columns, you could modify the team ID's for the players moving from extinct teams to extant teams (Which is what I presume you did so that Kevin Love isn't a free agent).

Yeah I definitely could do that. And you're right, that's what I did this time around. I guess I'll leave it open ended then, so we'll see what happens