It was a good run

It was a good run

Postby leslieweizen » Sun Dec 02, 2018 6:47 pm

Ten years into the game, using the 2017 engine until this past season, Coach Ron Artest and the St. John’s Red Storm have put together a rather good four-year run:

2027 36-2 (end of season ranking: #1) lost in Final Four
2028 37-1 (end of season ranking: #1) lost in Final Four
2029 36-0 (end of season ranking: #1) Won Championship
--- lost a three-time All American & upgraded to 2018 game engine --
2030 36-0 (end of season ranking: #1) ??? about to play Final Four

In this time our prestige has gone from 73 to 90, and I think it’s time to change jobs. I’d like to keep the same game running, and my question for the forum is, given that Coach Artest has maxed out his skill ratings, and that I’ve figured out some reasonably good recruiting and development practices, how run-down of a program should I pick? The goal is to have a chance of winning another title within ten years.

Three down-on-their-fortune schools I have my eye on:
Iowa (Big Ten, 39 prestige, C+ facilities)
Oregon State (Pac 12, 32 prestige, C+ facilities)
Butler (Big East, 27 prestige, B+ facilities)

This way I’d have a strong selling point to new recruits besides location: conference prestige or facilities. I could also try to take over a school with single-digit prestige and A-level academics, but that might be an exercise in futility. What do y’all think?
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Re: It was a good run

Postby PointGuard » Sun Dec 02, 2018 7:32 pm

I think you have a good chance of accomplishing your goal at any of the 3 listed colleges. Going to a lower prestige college would definitely increase the challenge...so I say go for that.

What's your level of difficulty for recruiting? Want more challenge? Change to a more difficult level.
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Re: It was a good run

Postby leslieweizen » Mon Dec 03, 2018 12:48 am

Thanks for the reply. After winning our first championship, I upped the recruiting difficulty from Normal to Hard, and it was overdue. I'd been pulling strictly Top 50 guys for 5+ years.

I'm not even sure whether it's advantageous to be signing Top 10 guys? It's more fun to sign guys who aren't one-and-done, and sometimes you'll get an amazingly productive Top 25 recruit who turns into a four-year destroyer. You expect him to declare every year, yet he never does, while the #5 recruit you redshirted because he sucked leaves for the pros without playing a minute.
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Re: It was a good run

Postby PointGuard » Mon Dec 03, 2018 3:09 am

You might even consider increasing it to Brutal. I've been using that level (at a low prestige school) and it definitely makes things tougher (and I think more realistic). I've not tried it at a high prestige program, though...so the results you would might encounter would be interesting.

Also, if a Top 10 player has low ratings when he arrives as a freshman, it would be interesting to see how it truly performs and develops by playing as a freshman rather than being redshirted. It's probably not surprising that he's unhappy at not playing...and obviously the pros are still rating him high since he's being drafted.
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Re: It was a good run

Postby leslieweizen » Tue Jan 15, 2019 2:43 pm

Update: Took Iowa from a 37 prestige program that hadn't won 20 games since the save began to a championship in 5 years. We got lucky to win it so quickly, but I learned some things.

In Year One we went from a 10-18 team to a 20-11 team that made the tournament, based solely on my making better rotation decisions than the CPU and my coach’s ratings. Our roster just wasn’t good, but the power of coaching shocked me. Prestige rose to 50.

In Year Two, we brought in one new player, a #906 ranked center. Somehow he became a four-year starter and posted a career 13 + 8 on good percentages. Won 25 games and made the Sweet Sixteen.

Year Three: A step back, but won 23 games and made the second round.

Year Four: 27-7 and snagged a somewhat undeserved #1 seed. Made the Elite 8 where we ran into a better Gonzaga team.

Year Five: We lost seven seniors, and it was hard to think we’d do any better than the year before. Prestige was up, but only to 56. Landed our first Top 30 recruit, but he was slotted to be our backup big behind #906 and a PF transfer from a surprisingly good Bradley program. Went 22-8 and got a #6 seed while ending the season unranked. By point differential, we were actually the best team in the Big Ten, and we’d run the table in the conference tournament, so I thought I could coach us to the Sweet Sixteen or the Elite Eight.

We got to the Eight, and things opened in front of us. #1 seed UCLA had a star player hampered by injury, and we beat them. Then #1 overall seed Georgetown, who had an insane freshman SF averaging 23 and 11 with 6 steals, saw their star go down with a broken leg. They fell to Texas, who we could and did beat. In the Championship we faced Oklahoma State, with the second best player in the country, a freshman C averaging 19 and 12. Our only prayer was to trot out our freshman sixth man and his 72 Draw Foul rating. Their star fouled out in 11 minutes and we took the crown 84-81.

The night of the championship, I got a Team Incident Report. Our starting senior PG got into a shouting match with another starter for the eighth time this season. Couldn't agree on which strip club to go to I guess.

Lessons:
A good coach is really powerful
Draw Foul changes games
Three good bigs will take you far
Time to increase the recruiting difficulty to Brutal
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Re: It was a good run

Postby Magic Bird » Tue Jan 15, 2019 8:37 pm

I have a question about C #906: Do you remember if he had an overall player rating of A or B when you were recruiting him? I've wondered how such ratings for players with low rankings reflect their future collegiate production.

While I believe a player with a high Draw Foul rating can significantly impact games, I think you were fortunate that the Oklahoma State star fouled out in 11 minutes as opposed to picking up 3 or 4 fouls in 15-20 minutes. Otherwise, I agree with the rest of your points concerning what you've learned. Congratulations for your great run with Iowa!
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Re: It was a good run

Postby leslieweizen » Wed Jan 16, 2019 2:51 am

I don’t remember if he was a ‘B’ or a ‘C’ overall. I do remember that my hope for him was that he would be an 8 and 8 guy by his senior year -- a serviceable backup / borderline starter. He arrived on campus as a 3 star with 3.5 potential, so a high floor but a low ceiling, and blossomed within the system.

My operating assumption is that the letter-grade ratings are linked to a recruit’s potential, and high school stats are linked to current abilities. What do you guys think?
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Re: It was a good run

Postby Magic Bird » Wed Jan 16, 2019 8:25 pm

leslieweizen wrote:My operating assumption is that the letter-grade ratings are linked to a recruit’s potential, and high school stats are linked to current abilities. What do you guys think?

I have noticed that high school stats are linked to the degree of skill current and potential that recruits possess in each area, at least among 5 star prospects.

Some Examples:
SFs averaging 25-30 ppg, 9-10 rpg, but only 1-2 apg in High School will have very high scoring and rebounding ratings (SCR 40-60 current, 70-90 potential; OREB 50-70 current, 70-90 potential; DREB 40-60 current, 60-80 potential) but low passing ratings (35-45 current, 40-50 potential).

Centers averaging 20+ ppg but only 5-6 rpg will have low rebounding ratings (30-40 current, 40-60 potential in one of either OREB or DREB, the other one will usually be lower in both current and potential ratings).

PGs averaging 9-10 apg will have very high passing ratings (40-60 current, 65-90 potential); PGs averaging only 5-7 apg usually will have rather low passing ratings (30-50 current, 40-60 potential). PGs averaging 7-8 apg may end up at either end of the spectrum in passing rating.

I have no clue about what letter grade ratings correlate with. Top 50 prospects usually have A ratings, and they are usually pretty good. Prospects rated 50-150 usually have B ratings, and they also are often pretty good, but usually not to the same degree as prospects in the top 50. Plenty of recruits outside the top 150 have B ratings, but they usually aren't quite as good as the top 150 players who also have B ratings. Many C rated players outside the top 150 are as good as the B rated players outside the top 150. I've seen a few A rated players outside the top 150, but I've never observed what their ratings were the next season or how they performed in future seasons. My letter grade rating observations were casual and cursory, so they probably aren't accurate. I'm thinking about studying this in depth, but I probably won't get around to it for a while.
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Re: It was a good run

Postby leslieweizen » Thu Jan 17, 2019 2:34 am

Good stuff here. My assumption is that overall letter-grade ratings correspond with potential: A = 4.5 or 5 star, B = 3.5 or 4 star, C = 3 stars or under, maybe? But unless you have ace scouting, your scouts will be wrong about this rather often. I tend to rescout players who have ratings outside of what you would expect (a Top 50 being a C, someone outside the Top 150 being an A) to see if they fall in line after reevaluation.

Scouting transfers also helps you learn what recruits' scouted ratings mean.
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Re: It was a good run

Postby CoachC » Sun Jan 20, 2019 3:35 am

before going brutal, i'd suggest lowering your coach's stats at the start, and maybe starting at a low-major... then if that becomes too easy...think about brutal.
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