PointGuard wrote:I understand the desire for predictability and a level of "certainty" and realize there are a lot of DDSCB players on either side of this issue.
But I think that the game's portrayal of "uncertainty" is a good reflection of life. There are those who are high school stars who just don't make it at the Division 1 level. They look and play great in high school and may have all the potential in the world, but their delivery (for any number of reasons) when they begin playing with the "big boys" just doesn't match the hype. And there are those who are good, but not great, players at the high school level who mature and bloom when they get to college. And...college head and assistant coaches have biases, get inaccurate information, and make evaluation errors all the time.
There are games I like and play where I know and can expect player performance (e.g. an MLB sim game where I know Mike Trout will be a great hitter) and the level of "uncertainty" is much lower, but I've become hooked on DDSCB (and therefore play the other games less) because with DDSCB I can't always accurately predict how recruits and players will do. So recruiting, while not a crap shoot, is an educated guess. More often than not I'm right, but...
Yes, except it is the 'all the potential in the world' part that should be the great variance, not the HS level of ability. I don't have a problem with a kid who never develops in the ACC--happens all the time. But that kid can go to ODU and still be a valuable starter. I don't think that has much chance of happening here.
Going from say 1.5 stars to 3.5 stars is a normal ACC 'developmental' starter, I think. Showing up as an 0.5 is not really realistic. At worst, he could be a 1.0 and only have 2.0 potential, and then transfer to place where could start as a Jr or Sr, but not be a bench warmer at Jackson St.
At a lower level school, I should be looking at 1.5 star guys who likely won't improve and weighing whether I can gamble that a 1.0 with 2.0 potential could become a better player if I take a risk and get him.