I'm playing as Texas A&M. Cruising along at 7-2. I play Rice. Lose 36-9. RICE. No matter what I change my coaching strategy to. It's almost like the games says you only get this many wins and you ain't beating these guys. No matter if they are 4-5 or not.

There really isn't anything in the AI that detects that kind of thing. More likely they just match up well against your team... be it a certain QB, a certain defense, a certain WR or RB, etc.