In Wile We Trust

November 2021

Postby JoFleecy » Wed Jan 12, 2022 11:00 am

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Lumberjacks lose @ Long Beach State 49ers, 83-80
This was a painful debut to lose. We led at the half 49-35 and were heavily favored to win.
From as much as 20 down, the 49ers came back 48-31 to win the game in the second half.
Brian Foley missed the game-tying basket from the top of the arc, adding to his awful shooting of 1/12.
James Houston was in foul trouble all game, I managed to get him 19 minutes but it hurt us in the second when he got his 4th early.
Turnovers and the streaky 49er Logan Candelaria caused the collapse in the second half.
We led in all major statistical categories with the notable exceptions of steals (1 STL to 8).
We led in turnovers (15 TO to 8). Our assist total is also worth highlighting (23 AST to 11).
Shot well in our debut, 41% from deep. Lynn Milner was our leading scorer with 15.

Lumberjacks lose vs Marshall Thunder Herd, 87-77
First game at J. Lawrence Walkup Skydome, first loss at home.
Down 44-39 at the half and things weren't looking good already, the Jacks shooting 16% from 3 in the half, Houston with 3 fouls.
We get beat in the paint 32-20 by a team that shouldn't be doing that to a team that features James Houston.
Unfortunately for Houston, fouls are such a problem that he is having a hard time finding any consistency in his game to start the year.
Milner with the repeat leading scorer for the Jacks with 15 again.
We had 12 blocks in this game! 3 players had 3 blocks; Merill, Mason and Johnston.
We led early in the first but never really established our footing, it was an easy win for the Herd.


So our problem child through two games has been identified. SR SF Brian Foley, in his 46 minutes: .208 FG%, .291 TS% and 39% usage rate. Why on earth he is doing this to us, I might never know, but he's looking awfully benchable right now. So yeah he's benched. Still very early of course but now is the time for me to experiment. FR SG Dave Atchinson is playing well with the starters right now, so he'll get the nod. So we're benching a 4-star SR in favor of a 1.5-star FR. Let everybody early on know times have changed. While we're here, who's the early stud candidate? Brian Mason, Foley's fellow SR SF, is shooting lights out and playing extremely efficiently to start the year with an EFF of 18,5. I grimace every time I have to take Mason out for rest, he seems to be a real glue guy. Houston, in the limited minutes he's been around, has been incredibly dominant in the paint, and Embiid'ing on the arc.


Lumberjacks win vs Central Florida Knights, 72-61
Can't quite describe the feeling of that first victory, and at home as well.
This was a pretty close game overall, but we were able to build a lead off a three-point barrage in the second half by Lynn Milner and co.
Lynn had 18 pts on 4/8 shooting from deep, as well as 5 assists to be named player of the game.
When I first saw him, I thought James Houston was going to dominate offensively. So far he has shown to instead be a stalwart defensive paint presence.
FR SG Atchinson disappointed in his first start despite the win (1/8 FG, 2 TO). Foley off the bench posted a positive +/- for the first time.
A necessary win for us, happy to have achieved.

Lumberjacks win vs Texas-Rio Grande Vaqueros, 83-80
An epic battle, a stressful end game, but a solid victory for the team.
It was a tense and competitive game from the very beginning. We welcomed J.T. Tucker, a 26ppg center for the Vaqueros.
In Houston's first real test, he shined. He held Tucker to 13 on 6-15, blocked him personally 4 times, and fouled him out of the game.
James finished with 14 pts, 9 boards and 4 blocks. And the little man to his big? Lynn Milner.
Lynn scored a season high 21 as well as 5 assists and 5 rebounds to be named player of the game in consecutive outings.
James Houston hit the final dagger from 10 feet. He waved goodbye over to Tucker on the bench.

Lumberjacks lose @ Hartford Hawks, 77-74
Very disappointing loss, we clawed ourselves all the way back, but there just wasn't enough time.
Unfortunately James Houston met his match today in James Thorpe, another 20+ppg center.
Thorpe recorded 24 points on 9/14 shooting, as well as 2 blocks on Mr. Houston. No waving goodbye though thankfully.
Our lead scorer was again Lynn Milner, but this time tying him is Atchinson, both with 14 pts.
Houston had a massive 5 blocks, but was not able to make the difference in the end.
Brian Foley continues to lead the way in inefficiency for us. It feels like he's mucking up the offense, no matter what group I put him with.


I will continue trying with Foley but so far we lose when we play him and we win when we don't, that simple. Shooting 25%, NET -7.7, a mere 7.0 PER so far. Compare that to second string freshman SG Mike Collins, who's shooting 46%, NET +1.5, PER 12.7 with his minutes. The freshmen are impressing overall, I didn't really have high expectations for them to be fair when compared to Foley. James Houston is currently leading the team in advanced statistical categories including a PIE of 16.72. He is also currently #7 in the whole country in BPG with 2.8 after five games. Brian Mason cooled off significantly over the last three games, but he doesn't take many shots and is efficient even when he's off. Lucas Merrill has been the steady presence I expected, currently scoring more than I thought he would and passing less. He is second in PPG behind Milner with 8.8 PPG. Milner himself is averaging 16.6 PPG, 3.8 APG and 3.4 3PM per game. Right now off the bench getting gold stars through five are SO forward Bryan Lowry, SG Dave Atchinson and backup C Owen Johnston. Disappointments there so far feature backup PG Tristan Watkins who sports a negative A/TO ratio, JR forward Troy Heatherly also struggling with turnovers. Our four remaining non-conference games include @ Arizona State, vs North Dakota, @ Long Island and finally vs East Tennessee State. The goal here is to go 5-4, if we can pick up either ASU or Long Island, I think we can take care of North Dakota and East Tenn at home.
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Re: In Wile We Trust

Postby Wayne23 » Wed Jan 12, 2022 11:11 am

It's not all that unusual for a player's ratings not to match his performance, as is happening with Foley. This is particularly true if your ratings, as Head Coach, are not that high. Clearly, you do better when he's sitting. There may well be a player or two on your bench whose performance will exceed their ratings. Just another fun part of the game, and a great reason to experiment early in the season so you'll have your best lineup in place when conference play starts.
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Re: In Wile We Trust

Postby JoFleecy » Wed Jan 12, 2022 11:18 am

Thanks for affirming that for me with your experience. I've noticed it of course myself and I think it's one of the most fun parts of it all! It can lend narratives and stuff and gives you a puzzle. Thanks for commenting.
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Re: In Wile We Trust

Postby JoFleecy » Thu Jan 13, 2022 1:46 pm

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Lumberjacks win @ Arizona State Sun Devils, 85-83 in OT
Lynn Milner hits three consecutive three pointers in overtime to seal the win for the Jacks.
Brian Mason earns his first player of the game award: 13pts/5asts/10rbs/2blks/3stls.
James Houston continues his monster shot blocking season with another 6 in this game.
Bench played really well, 34 bench points to ASU's 16, Troy Watkins with 9 and Collins with 9.
We were running this game until ridiculous amounts of fouls allowed them to come back and tie.
Luckily Lynn put the team on his back in OT, he wasn't shooting particularly well to that point.
Three consecutive bombs were enough to put the Sun Devils away and escape with a win.

Lumberjacks lose vs North Dakota Fighting Hawks, 77-72 in OT
Back to back OT games, this time three consecutive turnovers by our guys cost the game.
North Dakota PG J. Lloyd stole four passes in the OT period.
James Houston played five minutes, fouling out at a rate of one foul per minute.
My mismanagement of Houston definitely contributed to the loss.
Unfortunately, James' backup Johnston also fouled out in 24 minutes.
PF Starter Lucas Merill played 34 minutes, a lot at the 5 where he played admirably (15pts 9rb)
Lynn continued with his 3-point heroics, but with no James Houston and an MIA bench (16pts), it was too much.

I wish there were some way I could help James with his fouling trouble. It's clear to anyone watching that we need him present to be successful this season. I will do the only thing I can, which is become more protective of him when he gets fouls. I've been loose with him because as stated, we really need him out there in order to win games. Foley's minutes have dropped under 10mpg in the past three. I talked to him and asked him to drive more, shoot less contested midrange jumpshots. He is a gifted passer, and if I can cut down on his usage rate or at least convert it into possible free throw attempts (where he excels) we'll be in a great spot.

Lumberjacks win @ Long Island Sharks, 83-75
Lynn Milner took command in the first and never let go, recording a season high 26 pts.
Our presence on the offensive glass was a difference maker with 13-4 second chance points.
That's been one of our strengths all season, offensive rebounding by our forwards, especially Merrill & Mason.
We had a fantastic shooting night, going 11-23 from deep.
Our constant fouling was the Sharks' one chance to get back into the game.
Merill and Houston both with 4 fouls, only 20 minutes played. 23 total team fouls.
I'm hoping as our zone knowledge builds and is played more, our fouls will go down.

Lumberjacks win vs East Tennessee State Buccaneers, 79-67
Feels great to get our first dominant win at home.
We limited our turnovers and fouls to equal or less than our opponent, which is nice.
19 second chance points off 13 orebs, compared to their 3 off of 4.
The freshman had his time to shine tonight, Dave Atchinson picked up player of the game with his 23 pts.
Flashes of James Houston dominating the paint offensively, with 2 post move dunk-and-ones
The excitable sophomore PF Bryan Lowry contributed 9 pts off the bench, despite also fouling out in his 18 mins.
Only one Lumberjack posted a negative +/-, backup PG Trevor Watkins with -4. Great team outing.

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So we escape out of conference play with a positive record! Our guards have been pouring it in, our forwards are snatching offensive boards and our centers are fouling out. We finish with 140 net rank, with the most significant games being our win @ Long Island and our loss @ Hartford. The Lumberjacks are still 6th in the nation in blocks per game with 7.7bpg. James Houston is third in the nation in that category with 2.8bpg. Most surprising of all is that we find ourselves leading the nation in rebounding at 38.2 rpg. We grab offensive rebounds at a comparative percentage (29%) to the likes of Duke and Gonzaga. Unfortunately when it comes to our foul percentage (35%) our comparisons are more in the Delaware and Western Illinois category. Our offensive sets allow us to grab a lot of boards, but I can not say I expected our primarily perimeter-shooting team to be top ten in the country in paint statistics. We open up conference play next week with a home opener versus Portland State. A quick two game road trip to face Montana State and Idaho before coming back home to play Northern Colorado. Finishing up the five game swing is a road game at Eastern Washington. My predictions are 3-2 in this swing, both home games as well as Montana State. Idaho and Eastern Washington road games will be challenging.
Last edited by JoFleecy on Sat Jan 15, 2022 12:15 am, edited 4 times in total.
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Re: In Wile We Trust

Postby PointGuard » Thu Jan 13, 2022 2:38 pm

Getting 5 fouls in 5 minutes is a new world record--be sure to contact Guinness World Records for approval.

While it appears James Houston is a great shot blocker so it's good to having him guarding one of your opponent's primary scorers, you MAY want to try setting him (on the 2D page) to guard a guy who doesn't shoot so much which may keep his fouling down to a manageable amount.
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Re: In Wile We Trust

Postby JoFleecy » Thu Jan 13, 2022 2:51 pm

In the post game screen, it showed he actually only had four minutes. I would take him out, put him in and he would foul on that next possession without fail lol. I like the idea there thanks, I hadn't considered that as an option, I will definitely keep that in mind for this next stretch.
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Re: In Wile We Trust

Postby JoFleecy » Fri Jan 14, 2022 7:31 pm

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Lumberjacks win vs Portland State Vikings, 87-78
Down at the half in a close game, Milner is going shot for shot with opposing PG Mickey Baker, both with 14 pts.
Unfortunately for Mickey, his team's SF wasn't much of a scoring threat.
SF Brian Mason shut him down in the second half, exhausting the PG with his defensive intensity and length.
Houston picks up player of the game honors with 15pts, 5rbs, 3 blks.
Nearly all Jack starters were in double figures. Merill just missed out with 9, but contributed with 8 rbs.
Brian Foley finding his niche as a defensive roleplayer for Mason off the bench. 11mins - 3 rbs, 2 asts, 1 blks.
A solid outing that could be improved by better shooting from the bench in future games. (8/21 FG, 0/7 3PT)
Our bench still beat theirs 21-17 on the off night.
The balanced scoring among starters was fantastic. 16, 16, 15, 10 and 9 on 50+ FG%.

Lumberjacks lose @ Montana State Bobcats, 66-72
We gave it a real shot down the stretch to close it to six, but we were outgunned from the very beginning.
The boxscore shows a very even game in the stats, but we never led or even tied.
Our first half showing of 0-13 from deep didn't do us any favors.
Lynn & Atchinson combined for 2-18 FG in the first half.
Lynn finished the game as our leading scorer with 18, Brian Foley had a hell of a game for himself with 13 pts of perfect shooting.
I think Lynn got a little shot happy in this one and it cost us, he was too large a percentage of our shots, totally opposite of last game.
Brian Mason couldn't shut down Montana State leading scorer Ryker Foster, who hung 17 on him as well as 3 steals.
Off shooting nights happen. Let's hope to bounce back for the Vandals.

Lumberjacks lose @ Idaho Vandals, 80-85
Star Vandal PG Alexander Weiss iced the game with 8 consecutive free throws.
This was a pretty frustrating game overall, where we shot 13 FTs and they shot 37.
We absolutely crushed them everywhere except with the refferee. It doesn't seem to matter how easy I tell my guys to be, the refs don't like us.
Brian Foley erupts for 26 pts, 3 rbs, 3 asts, 3 stls and 3 3PT in 28 minutes off the bench.
It seems time on the bench has done Foley well as he has been ultra-efficient in recent games.
Our lineup that saw up take a 10 point lead? Milner-Atchinson-Foley-Mason-Houston. They looked very strong out there.
It would be great if Foley's recent production wasn't fluke!

Lumberjacks win vs Northern Colorado Bears, 87-76
Bryan Lowry with the play of the game off the bench, a sick alley-oop out of transition in the first half, he would close the half with 13.
Brian Foley continues his stretch of excellence with the player of the game, posting 13 pts, 4 asts, 8 rbs, 1 blk 1 stl.
Those two bench Brians combined for 30 off the bench, including a season high 17 pts for Lowry.
James Houston fouled out in 19 minutes of play with 12 pts, 4 rbs and 5 TOs, continuing his poor recent form.
The bench outscored the starters 47-40. Backup PG Tristan Watkins had a good game as well, perfect from the field for 10 pts.
This was quite a comfortable victory as predicted, the Bears never got within 5.
With this victory we outperform last season's win total, a successful season.

Lumberjacks lose @ Eastern Washington Eagles, 81-93
Gave up 29 points to Eagles shooting guard Gregg Leroy.
We shot 17/19 FT to 25/33 FT.
Houston fouled out again unfortunately.
We had 18 TO to their 6.
Lynn Milner with the near triple double in the loss 14 pts/8 rbs/8 asts.
This one was quite painful to play.

All I can hope is that in future years with increased discipline, increased defensive ability, and increased scheme knowledge, we will stop fouling like it's a contest. We get absolutely NOTHING in return for this, as our defensive intensity is at it's minimum level. I don't know what to do about the turnovers. Mason might be looking at the bench, shockingly. He's a great rebounder but so are Merill and Houston. He is our #1 source of turnovers. He also kind of slows us down out there on offense, because he has no deep shot at all, unlike most of our bigs besides Merill. So we failed our predictions, going 2-3 in the stretch. We were predicted to win Eastern Washington, and we didn't show up there. Coming up we've got home games vs Weber State and Idaho State followed by a three game road trip to Montana, Sacramento State and Weber State.
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Re: In Wile We Trust

Postby Wayne23 » Sat Jan 15, 2022 10:45 am

I look at Stats, Per 40 Minutes. This gives me an interesting look at my players. How does your #3 guard look under that lens as compared to the guy who's turning it over so much?
Also, bump up your D to about 5; I'm guessing you won't foul much more than you are now, and it will make you more competitive. If it doesn't work you can always go back to minimum.
And, again, it's hard to win on the road.
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Re: In Wile We Trust

Postby PointGuard » Sat Jan 15, 2022 3:19 pm

Yeah, I like comparing using "per 40 min", but just need to realize that your subs MAY be coming in about the same time each half that they're going up against the other team's subs, not their starters who have tired the same time as your starters did.
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Re: In Wile We Trust

Postby Wayne23 » Sat Jan 15, 2022 3:29 pm

Good point, Point (I keep saying that!)!
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