Conference Realignment Narrative / Fan Fiction ("RealFuture"

[palmer006]

So one of the CFB youtubers I follow once referred to some people on X/Twitter as spinning CFB realignment 'fan fiction' so I thought I'd own that term lol. This narrative goes along with the Real Future teams, schedule, bowl, etc. files I have released and dynasty reports to show how it played out:

2024

California, Stanford, SMU join the ACC

Army to American

In January 2024, Clemson and Florida State declare intent to leave ACC for the SEC, followed by North Carolina and Virginia in February after many rumors. Start year to depend on negotiated exit.

In March Washington State and Oregon State announce they will join the MWC in 2026 and enter a scheduling alliance in 2024 and 2025. Washington State and Oregon State will play in Las Vegas in '24 and '25 for the Pac-2 Championship but will have to qualify as an at large for the CFP.

On July 1, B1G follows announcing that Miami and only Miami will join with no other brands deemed worthy. Miami accepts par money with what their old ACC share would have been, which amounts to something like 45% of a full share until contract end. The scheduling realities of an odd number of teams with an odd number of conference games dictate that one team would have just 8 teams. Unable to come to terms with Fox on adding a 10th conference game to the B1G's satisfaction (which would not have the same issue due to an even number of games), part of Miami's entry into the league is that they will only play 8 conference games each season. While they will reach the championship game with an 8-0 record over an 8-1 team, they agree to be automatically ineligible before any other tiebreakers in the unlikely scenario that two teams finish 9-0 as well as the Canes finishing 8-0. Soon thereafter both Florida and Florida State agree to annual matchups as both lose each other as an annual in-state nonconf foe in joining the same conference. This in turn, satisfies the B1G/Fox as to its slate of games for TV purposes as the U looks to add an FCS and G5 school (or random ACC school occasionally) beyond those two annually.

The Big XII is unable to find more TV money to woo targets like Louisville and Virginia Tech (and certainly not with complicated and potentially expensive buyouts involved) and stands pat as those schools prefer to ride out their current contract and reap the benefits of ACC membership.

A few days later the ACC announces that all outgoing teams have reached terms on leaving in time for the 2025-26 season (pre the August 15 deadline). Washington State and Oregon State will honor their scheduling agreement with the MWC in 2024 and will join the ACC in 2025. The ACC thus has just one 17-team season in 2024 before dropping down to 14 in 2025 and can keep its TV contract good through 2036. Eventually a rebrand as the "American Coast Conference" is announced. SMU and the 4 Western schools will play annually, meaning only two road games to the east per year for the Western teams and only 1 trip west for the Eastern teams each year (counting SMU as a "western team) and one year every 6 with no trips west

In September the B1G announces its revised 2025-2029 schedule. Iowa-Nebraska is dropped as a rivalry to allow the Hawkeyes to play each team at least twice in a 5-year cycle as the Hawkeyes had 3 protected rivals previously which would have made such a rotation impossible with the addition of 19th team Miami (it would have been each team at least twice in a 6 year cycle for Iowa and only Iowa). Miami, Nebraska, and Penn State are now the three teams without a protected game, though there were some discussions online of reviving Miami and Nebraska's 80s/90s occasional rivalry as a protected game.

In October 2024 the SEC tires of negotiations with ESPN and delcares it will continue 'for the forseeable future' with an 8 game schedule. In order to placate teams like Alabama sore about playing 3 traditional powers 3-6-6-4 model, the SEC allows up to 4 protected rivals so that such teams can have one less historically strong team icluded in a 4-4-4-4-3 model that leaves several protected matchups but only playing the rest of the league once every 4 years. With much debate over how to do it, it's decided that 10 historic powers will be declared and each historic power will have 3 protected opponents among historic powers and 1 amongst non historic powers for a best stab at competitive balance (and as a convoluted way of preserving Alabama-LSU as a protected game, keeping traditional rivalry Bama-TN as well as ensuring other big brands play each other more often such as in other protected games like Clemson-Texas, Clemson-Georgia [itself an old rivalry], and LSU-Oklahoma). This arrangement conversely has all 10 non-power teams playing 1 of the 10 historic powers as a protected game and 3 of each other annually. THis leads to lots of consternation from Texas A&M who is clearly given 'non-historic power' status though it leads to an easier slate for them of Texas, Arkansas, Miss State, and Missouri annually. Though the SEC does a good job of at least keeping regionality amongst the shoehorned games, a certain amount of games that aren't super rivalries (such as Oklahoma-Missouri, Kentucky-Missouri, or Florida State - Virginia) but do have historic value are required to be included

2027
The C-USA adds Connecticut and Massachusetts as football-only teams, leaving Notre Dame the only independent and pushing the C-USA’s number to 14. The conference also moves Richmond up from FCS.
The United Conference adds Incarnate Word to also go up to 12

2029
With no additional 'brands' available and Notre Dame still refusing to budge, the B1G surprises some by not jumping at brands like Kansas and Duke and standing pat on expansions during its new TV negotiations
Notre Dame announces its intent to not extend its GOR with the ACC and as part of its agreement with NBC will hold 7 spots on its schedule available starting in 2037 for non-USC B1G teams (it will play Stanford and Navy annually as well as maintain one flex game for FCS or special/other teams). Suddenly it becomes clear that though the Irish maintain their independence, their closer ties with the B1G appear to leave them one step closer to joining a conference. The B1G does move to 10 conference games finally allowing Miami to play the same number of games as its fellow conference members.

FCS powers NDSU, SDSU, Montana, and Montana State join the now 16-team Mountain West

The C-USA absorbs the United Conference and takes a mammoth swing at the lower ranks in hopes of maximizing its chances of securing a CFP bid each year, inviting Chattanooga, Nicholls State, E Tennessee State, Weber State, Dayton, Samford, Butler, and Western Carolina to form a 32-team enormous conference worthy of the name. Teams are grouped into 4 scheduling groups of 8 by region and play only 7 games with no crossover to maximize revenue for the conference and boost strength of schedule for members in hopes one can break through to the CFP which It has so far failed to come close to achieving in the 5 seasons of the 12-team CFP to date.

2030

The Big XII is very hopeful to strike at the opportunity to raid an ACC closing in on the end of its long deal but finds itself unable to, simply striking a deal essentially equivalent to its last one which is a significant loss due to inflation.

2031

The SEC receives a rude awakening. With Fox off the table, CBS focused on the NFL and easing out of college football altogether, and NBC pairing itself back to just game of the week + Notre Dame status in the wake of Peacok's failure, ESPN and its now complete online focus is the only deal on the table and gives the SEC only $65 million per team per year as its new ESPN+ focused existence has found a stable but not as lucrative footing. The disappointing deal still doubles up the Big XII and almost the ACC but falls short of the B1G's own disappointing $73 million per team per year deal especially given the power of inflation since the last deal.

2036


Echoing the Pac-12 over a decade before, The ACC waits until the eleventh hour to sign a modest 6-year extension with ESPN putting it just $5 million per team per year in revenue above the new American conference deal. This is somewhat of a win in that the ACC, without the hubris of its old blue bloods, accepts the deal that is on the table to preserve what they have and to continue to battle the AAC and MWC for the two open playoff spots

2038

A 16-year period of somewhat surprising college football stability comes to an end when ahead of the B1G's TV renewal, Ohio State, Penn State, Notre Dame, and USC join the SEC which in turn expels Vanderbilt and South Carolina. The B1G takes Vanderbilt at MWC-level money for the 3 remaining years on the B1G's deal to get back to an even number while the ACC takes back historic member South Carolina as well as luring Connecticut back for football only (it remains in the Big East for other sports)
The C-USA replaces Connecticut with FCS Villanova
The CFP expands to 16 starting in 2040 with heavy SEC influence and control. The CFP will have 8 SEC auto-bids, seven for the winner of each designated rivalry game at a new rivalry weekend held at neutral sites and one for the winner of a championship game amongst the 2 best of the rest of all the other teams. The B1G champ, and the next highest conf champ (likely the Big XII but with the ACC, American, or undefeated other G5 team also contending) will also receive auto-bids, leaving 6 at large bids to be filled. All in all the SEC retains 8 automatic bids to the tournament with plenty of access for some of its 24 teams (now containing all the conveivable biggest brands in the sport) to fill in some of the remaining 6 at larges after the B1G and non-power champ spots are filled. Still locked in a battle with its TV partners, the SEC continues to play only 8 conference games.

2053

After a 15-year CFP contract runs its course college football is very different than what it was 30 years earlier, back to being a truly regional sport with the exception of a robust but not '2nd biggest sport in the nation' following of the Premier (Super) League; it's following is more niche and akin to the MLS or NHL's following in the early 2020s. The peak appears to have been in the early to mid 2030s with an inevitable decline perhaps only accelerated by the Super League SEC’s formation in 2038. College football's decline has outpaced that of even the NFL's as Gen Z and Gen Alpha prop up the rise of soccer, e-gaming, and alternatives to sport in an America and world that is somewhat relatively less wealthy in general. Football at long last splits off from the NCAA as the big brands, unsatisfied with 7 automatic bids amongst 14 power brands to the CFP, split off. altogether from the SEC. The bottom 10 teams from the SEC are let go and the 14 biggest brands form a Premier League, the top 12 finishers of which gain entry to the still-16 team CFP where the #1 seed faces off against the non-premier (Football "League") champion in a semi-final that is the one game per year where a non-premier team plays a premier team. The remaining 8 "non-brand" SEC teams, the ACC, and two American teams merge with the Big XII to form the Power Conference as a 30-team competitor to the still 18-team Big Ten. Aging millennials and geriatric Gen X comprise a majority of fans and the quality and funding in both is now essentially what the Mountain West used to be in the 2020s while even the Premier League despite its big brands has the feel of ACC or low-end B1G games of the same era.