Player Regression

Re: Player Regression

Postby Flaming Homer » Sun Nov 14, 2021 7:56 am

@Gary: I will send you some examples via email
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Re: Player Regression

Postby Gary Gorski » Mon Nov 15, 2021 4:08 pm

I thank you for the couple of player pictures you sent with ratings but its not enough to make decisions on based on a couple of players.

What really needs to be studied is actual NBA players. Take a player like Thad Young for example. As a 30 year old he started 81 games and averaged 12.6/6.5 in 30.7 mpg. The next year he was down to 10.3/4.9 playing on 24.9 mpg. Then his 32 year old season he was back to 12.1/6.2 but in a reserve role playing 24.3 mpg. Now as a 33 year old he wasn't even playing at the start of this season until Poeltl had to go into COVID protocols. He can still play but he's not going to be some team's starter playing 32+ minutes - he could be a great reserve for a contender though.

Danillo Gallinari is another solid example. 31 years old averaging 18.7 ppg in 29.6 mpg. 32 averaged 13.3 in 24.0 mpg. This season at 33 is averaging 6.6 on 17.6 mpg

Kemba - 25.6 ppg at 28 then to 20.4, 19.3 and this season 12.5 at 31 years old playing a career low 26.2 mpg

Covington from POR - 12.4/6.6 with 1.6 stl and 1.3 bpg as a 29 year old. Two years later and he's averaging 6.5/4.8 with 1.1/0.7 as a 31 year old.

Kevin Love I don't even need to post the numbers.

Now that is not to say across the board that is how it is. Obviously LeBron is still putting up crazy numbers at 37 but he's a once in 30 years player. Jimmy Butler had an excellent season last year at 31 and a great start this year as well (although he's getting awfully injury prone). Al Horford isn't what he once was but he sort of had a drop off in his early 30s but then has remained consistent at that point.

I think maybe what the game needs is a bit more nuance in the regression where some players don't start as early or maybe don't have drop offs every year but I only spent a couple of minutes to pull the handful of examples from above and its not like those guys were nobodies and for some reason the coaches just played other guys over them. If they were still the players they were in their late 20s they would be playing a ton of minutes in their early 30s but they're not because obviously their skills have already started to diminish so I 100% do not think that early 30s is too early for players to be losing skill points.
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Re: Player Regression

Postby binballin » Mon Nov 15, 2021 4:47 pm

But their rare cases like Lebron 33yrs- 27-8-8 34yrs 25-7-10 35yrs 25-7-7 and
Kevin Durant 32yrs 26-7-5 33yrs 29-8-5
They don't regress as bad because their superstar players
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Re: Player Regression

Postby Flaming Homer » Tue Nov 16, 2021 8:21 am

I get the point in trying to adjust it to the RL data.
But sometimes the game play suffers from that.

Imo the best way would be make it adjustable when you start a league.
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Re: Player Regression

Postby binballin » Tue Nov 16, 2021 3:17 pm

After the update the oldest player in my league is 35
https://imgur.com/a/mEUFwrS
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Re: Player Regression

Postby KW77 » Tue Nov 16, 2021 10:22 pm

binballin wrote:After the update the oldest player in my league is 35
https://imgur.com/a/mEUFwrS

and everyone in that screenshot sucks at age 33-35... it's laughable

Gary can give all the examples of Kemba, Robert Covington and whoever that fell off for various reasons (Kemba is a shell of himself because of knee issues, not just age), and I can point to LeBron, Kyle Lowry, both Gasols, Chris Paul, and dozens upon dozens of past players who made it to their mid 30s without completely forgetting how to play basketball.
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Re: Player Regression

Postby KW77 » Tue Nov 16, 2021 10:50 pm

One of many possible fixes for this would be to just put in a modifier, to accelerate or decelerate the effects of aging.

This engine lags way behind DDS PF in terms of customization in a lot of ways, gameplay or off-the-court stuff, it would be a much better game with more options to tweak the player experience.
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Re: Player Regression

Postby SirMichaelJordan » Wed Nov 17, 2021 9:40 am

I think the age 35 is the average when we look at the past 10 years of the NBA when speaking only about natural regression and ignoring injury issues.
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Re: Player Regression

Postby Flaming Homer » Wed Nov 17, 2021 1:15 pm

I understand the goal to make the game as realistic as possible but I don't think that players in the NBA are washed with 33/34 years. There are quite a few who play high level basketball.

But again, I think the game in different engines is used by quite some multi player leagues. And for them this can make the engine just unusable.
Every rookie older than 24 is pretty much garbage, he will not improve since the engine has a static age criteria but he will start to decline as early as players who played 5-6 years in the league. Trading player will be harder and I don't think thats in the interest of any multi player league.

As KW says, best option would be some kind of modifier, so there would be at least the option to adjust it to your needs.
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Re: Player Regression

Postby Gary Gorski » Wed Nov 17, 2021 4:19 pm

KW77 wrote:Gary can give all the examples of Kemba, Robert Covington and whoever that fell off for various reasons (Kemba is a shell of himself because of knee issues, not just age), and I can point to LeBron, Kyle Lowry, both Gasols, Chris Paul, and dozens upon dozens of past players who made it to their mid 30s without completely forgetting how to play basketball.


Well LeBron does not belong in this discussion - you're bringing up one of the two best players ever so that's kind of a moot point although LeBron's entire tenure in LA (age 34-37) has seen him suffer injuries each season so while the games he plays are at a very high level statistically the amount of them has decreased significantly due to injury so there has still been a drop off in LeBron.

And if you read my post I did bring up that there are players who certainly have maintained a high level like Jimmy Butler and Al Horford. I would put Lowry in that camp and Chris Paul and Pau Gasol. I do not agree on Marc Gasol as his 34 year old season where he was traded to Toronto was certainly a step back from his 33 year old season. His 1.5 years in Toronto and one year in LA (age 34-36) were pretty terrible from a statistical standpoint. He went from averaging 15.7/8.6 in Memphis (just slightly down from 17.2 ppg the prior season) to 9.1/6.6 and 7.5/6.3 in Toronto to 5/4.1 in LA

I don't know what you consider "mid 30s" but currently there are 42 players 33 years or older who have appeared in a game this season. Of them 12 (28.5%) are/were consistent starters and of those 12 you have 3 of the best players to ever play the game (LeBron, Curry, KD). Of the other 9 you have Chris Paul (36), Al Horford (35), Kyle Lowry (35), Mike Conley (34) and Russell Westbrook (33) who are statistically relevant players and PJ Tucker, George Hill (who started because Holiday has been hurt), Danny Green and Nic Batum who are not. Of the rest you have Carmelo Anthony, LaMarcus Aldridge, Derrick Rose and I will give you one of Kevin Love/Brook Lopez who are still somewhat statistically relevant so that means more than 70% of the players in the league by age 33 are producing very low numbers and are there basically as a specialist (Tucker for defense, Danny Green for shooting), a cheap warm body or are at the end of a contract that paid them well for what they used to be capable of but are no longer worth anything close to that and nobody wants them.

If we look at those other 30 players age 33+ they combine average 6.3 ppg, 3.3 rpg, 1.6 apg, 0.6 spg and 0.5 bpg averaging 18.6 mpg. In the 33 year old category you have Batum, Pat Bev, Bjelica, Gallinari, Eric Gordon, DeAndre Jordan, Brook and Robin Lopez, Boban, Patty Mills, Ish Smith and Thad Young (outside of Curry, Durant, Love, Rose and Westbrook). Brook will start when he comes back healthy, someone might trade for Thad to play him in a reserve role for a playoff run and I think the rest of that group pretty well speaks for itself.

As for the other 7 guys Conley's numbers declined at age 32. Melo's took a dip at 33. Paul Millsap is one of the "others" in this list now but he had 4 straight all-star seasons from 28-31 before his numbers took a hit at 32 when he went to Denver.

Even if you look at the 32 year olds (16 of them according to basketball-reference) you have Butler, DeRozan and Harden all playing at a high level (although Harden's scoring has certainly fallen off from what he was doing at 30) , Bojan Bogdanovic who is good and that's it. So 75% of them are really no longer significant players (Bazemore, Bledsoe, Ed Davis, Dedmon, Dieng, Blake Griffin, Justin Holiday, Ibaka, the Morris twins, Wanamaker and Whiteside). Who on that list, maybe other than Bledsoe would you even think twice about?

Does the game need to do a better job of extending the greatness of the stars? Yes and that will be addressed in the next update. But it is not correct to say that players don't drop off until they are like 35. If you take out 3 of the greatest players the NBA has ever seen then nearly 77% of players 33 and older who are even good enough to be on a team and play (let alone all the 33+ year old players who are not) are just not very useful players. Remember when Blake Griffin was good at basketball when he was 29 and then has been a shell of himself since?

There has also been mention of trading in MP leagues...of all the players in the league 32 and older who has trade value other than the good players I pointed out? Nobody's lining up to trade for DeAndre Jordan and Kent Bazemore. Who's lighting up Toronto's line for Goran Dragic since he's barely even playing there?

KW77 commented about the image shared...do really expect Anthony Davis and Brad Beal to be elite players at 35? I could see them being like Aldridge and Carmelo where they could still get 12-15 a night but they're not going to be anchoring anyone's team at 35. You literally have 3 of the best players ever in the history of the game in LeBron, Steph and KD (and even Steph and KD are 33 so they aren't to 35 yet) - those guys are outliers here in this discussion.

Like I said, I have made adjustments in the build I am working on so I am most certainly not ignoring the subject but the evidence most certainly points to the vast majority of players 32 and older have regressed to the point where they are just role playing guys. Remember guys like Davis started at 19 whereas Pau Gasol did not hit the league until 21 so if you look at what he was after playing 15 years he was a 12/8 guy at that point and then a 10/8 guy next season and then totally worthless his following (and last season). After 15 years do you think Davis is going to be better than that when he's 35?
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