KW77 wrote:i'm not expecting you to let every player be at the top of his game at 35
.but the vast majority of players in that screenshot would be out of rotations in the CSL based on those ratings
To answer your question- I would expect an all-star at age 30 to be a capable starter 3-5 years later unless they were injured, with a chance to still be very good (like the Lowry, etc examples), or a chance to totally fizzle out into a bench player or useless bum (like the screenshot).
Cleasby wrote:I do think the slider model ddspf has for player development and player regression is an awesome feature. So I can see why that could be a great add for debates like this.
Johnny Slick wrote:One thing I think you ought to bear in mind - and this is part of why I'd like some kind of config file or number value to adjust aging - is that teams make decisions on older players that have very little to do with their current value.
Very often a team will play a younger player over a comparable if not better older guy because:
- The younger player is cheaper - even a guy on the vet minmum makes a lot more money than a rookie on a minimum contract.
- In years past (honestly not sure how it works now) you couldn't put players over a given age on your reserve roster or assign them to the G-League or the CBA.
- While the older player might be better *now*, the younger player at least has a chance of being better in a couple of years.
- In the current NBA, a bad team has very little incentive to play a veteran, especially if said veteran is better than younger players it has access to. If OKC can win 25 with Al Horford and 21 without him, why on Earth would they ever use him?
- Even if the bad team doesn't have a comparable younger player, they *still* have to ask themselves if said player is still going to be a worthy part of the rotation when they're a playoff contender again, in, say, 3 years or so. A 33 year old might still be good enough. At 36? That's a harder question.
- I'm not sure if younger players are actually more versatile than older players but the fact that they have room to improve means they could potentially be directed to improve in a certain direction. A guy like Russell Westbrook at the age he's at is going to be a usage-high, not terribly efficient scorer who will get lots of assists, rebounds, and turnovers. If you had Westbrook at 23 on a team with 2 established stars, there's at least that theory that you could retrain him to be more of a 3rd option type. Again, I'm not actually sure that this is *true*, but it's certainly a thing that coaches think about.
- There are certain varieties of coaches that work better with younger players than with older ones. These coaches tend to drive away vets, particularly vets who don't buy in. Of course there are the opposite but coaches who work better with vets tend to be the "just do your job and I'll try to make things as easy for you as possible to do so" type whereas the ones who work with the younger guys better tend to be the "I am a strategic GENIUS and I need you to do everything I tell you to do, no questions asked" type.
- A vet who has a bad season is much, much less likely to be given another chance to prove that it was just a bad season than a younger player.
A guy like Russell Westbrook at the age he's at is going to be a usage-high, not terribly efficient scorer who will get lots of assists, rebounds, and turnovers. If you had Westbrook at 23 on a team with 2 established stars, there's at least that theory that you could retrain him to be more of a 3rd option type. Again, I'm not actually sure that this is *true*, but it's certainly a thing that coaches think about.
but the eye test tells me that lots of guys, especially in the current era, are still just as good or at least at like 95% of the level they were at when they were 25 as they are at 33 or 34. In real terms I'm sure that, like, Lebron and Steph Curry have lost a step or two in terms of pure speed, but they've made up for it with basketball IQ stuff and frankly most of the ratings DDS PB uses are based on outcomes, not pure footspeed, etc.
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