KW77 wrote:i'm not expecting you to let every player be at the top of his game at 35
Literally no player other than LeBron can be considered to have been at the top of their game at 35. Chris Paul has been very good at his age but he's still had a drop off from his late 20s with the Clippers.
but the vast majority of players in that screenshot would be out of rotations in the CSL based on those ratings
.
Even with no tweaks 7 of the 20 players in that screenshot are 2 star or higher which means they are at least average bench players and again I already said that I had made changes that should bump that up. You really think that in 7 years players who are currently either bench players (Hart, Brown, Nunn, Morris, Colson) or are starters who are likely never to be all stars (Kuzma, Brooks, Graham, Nurkic, Capela, Grant, VanVleet, LeVert) are either going to be in the league for that first group or anything but a role player at best for that second? The majority of those 20 players won't be serious parts of rotations in 7 years so that part is already accurate and I've already tweaked things in my build that should handle the other 7.
To answer your question- I would expect an all-star at age 30 to be a capable starter 3-5 years later unless they were injured, with a chance to still be very good (like the Lowry, etc examples), or a chance to totally fizzle out into a bench player or useless bum (like the screenshot).
It's just not that clean. Of anyone who was ever an all star at all from the players currently in the league 35+ years old you have these tiers at the 33-35 stage of their career
Very high level - James, Paul
High level/starter - Lowry
Starter - Anthony, Horford
Starter/role player - Aldridge, Howard, Millsap
Role player - Iguodala
Role player/useless - Dragic, Rondo
From the 33-34 crowd you have
Very high level - Curry, Durant
Starter - Conley, B.Lopez, Westbrook
Role player - Love, Rose
Useless - D.Jordan
So out of the 11 in the first group you have 4 who were "capable starters" through 35. Aldridge was at 33 but not now and Melo has been a good scorer still to this day but I wouldn't classify him as anything great. Lowry was an all star at 33 but he's not as good today as he was two years ago by a noticeable margin. Even out of those 11 though all of them had regression to some degree from their highest point by 33 other than James.
Out of the 8 in the second group I would be surprised if Lopez was starting in two years and DeAndre probably won't be in the league in two years because he's already washed.
I think this is more the model to follow as opposed to either still being very good at 33-35 or a bum. But that's just the list of those 42 guys who had ever made any all star appearance period. That's not even half of the 33+ year old guys who have played this season. So that means that the majority of players do turn into a pumpkin by 33 let alone 35.
Again, in summary, yes - the guys who are still all-star caliber players late in their career need to have the regression toned down so they are still at least capable players in that 33-35 range and they will BUT the majority of players in that
range should not be very useful at all and even the really good players start showing regression in the early 30s - it's just not as drastic as the game has it now. Guys who are marginal starters in their prime should not also remain marginal starters into their mid 30s. Regression has to start for nearly everyone in the early 30s - it just has to be fine tuned a bit so that more outcomes are likely and players can fall into any of those above categories.