Player Development and Regression

[zac]

In my testing of DDS PF '24, I've observed that while the game manages to maintain a balance in player ratings across multiple seasons, the method it employs differs significantly from real-life football dynamics, particularly the NFL. Here's a breakdown of my observations (just my thoughts as understand many including those that work hard to make this game may not share these same observations at all):

In DDS PF '24, players experience a gradual progression until they reach around 30 years of age, followed by an equally slow regression. This results in players having exceptionally long careers compared to the NFL.

- Comparison with NFL Rosters: Current active NFL rosters typically have around 45 players aged 33 or older (excluding less athletic positions of QB, P and K). In contrast, after simulating 15 seasons in DDS PF '24, I found 183 players aged 33 or older on active rosters. Even with the regression set to "VERY HIGH" for all seasons, this number only drops to around 140. So "old" players remain big parts of rosters at levels over 300% higher than real life player aging models would suggest. Also game sort of seems to articually filter out old players by retiring a lot of guys at their peak (very common in game to see players retiring at 34 for example but still rated 85+ ovr and performing great). These figures would probably be even worse if players more commonly retired out of lack of ability.

- Impact on Draft Classes: The extended player careers in DDS PF '24 necessitate weaker draft classes to maintain talent balance. Consequently, most drafted players struggle to secure playing time, as they can't compete with the seasoned players aged 28-33 since they start their careers at such low ratings. This is in stark contrast to the NFL, where younger players are a core part of roster building, and veterans are less common as they struggle to remain at their athletic peak and compete with the younger players. With the exception of a few positions, athletic ability plays a huge part and is impacted by aging more so than other sports. And injuries in football play a more impactful rule in player talent changes. This lack of real-life aging makes drafting in this game less interesting given the lack of impact for most of the draft class.

- Predictability: The current model is highly predictable from a player to player standpoint. For instance, a player drafted with an 80+ OVR rating remains elite until around 35. Conversely, a player with a 70 OVR never really develops into a superstar. A more dynamic system for progression and regression would enhance the gameplay experience. Predicting a specific player's career arc in rating changes can be done with extreme accuracy and there are no real "surprise" player development stories to watch unfold or challenging roster-building development where your star play regresses very quickly over a couple of seasons earlier than expected (as happens in football)

In conclusion, while I understand that addressing this might not be a fix for first access, I believe long term it's essential for the game to simulate player careers more authentically, reflecting the realities of human aging and the nature of the sport. This isn't just about mirroring the NFL but about capturing the essence of football and player development and present a more authentic roster-building environment to those who want to be a GM and be faced with more impactful draft classes and more unpredictable challenges in terms of what players to sign to extension at risk of them regressing.

[brooks_piggott]

Can you shoot over the data you have on this? I don't mind tweaking the curves, but I'll need more data points to build them like the pct of nfl at 30, 31, 32, 33, etc. If I just target "33" that may not correctly show what happens between 28-32 and 34-40 for example. And if you have it by position that would be helpful too. The game does have different curves by position, so it would be interesting to see if some positions we have correct where other positions need to regress slower or quicker.

[zac]

Below google link has data I had currently. NFL data is from pro football focus. Numbers were off slightly above so updated first post. Below is the age distribution of NFL (left) and Draft Day Sports base settings (right) after 15 year sim:


https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... ue&sd=true

[zac]

Here's the graph with VERY HIGH regression turned on. I get the higher regression may not be for everyone, but may be room for improvement here with time even if regular setting remains unchanged . Think difference in charts is maybe more on fact that regression is too evenly applied to players. In NFL, there are a select few that remain flat in terms of athletic ability into their early 30s but many players regress very quickly but if all players start regressing much faster, would have opposite issue no nobody staying good into their mid-30s.

[brooks_piggott]

Ok, I don't want to tweak the normal regression settings too much as we do get feedback that people don't like their favorite players retiring early or getting hammered, but I am going to tweak the regression so it happens much stronger on High/Very High Age Regression settings. That should get closer to a NFL curve for those leagues that prefer it.