Player Development and Regression
Posted: Thu Oct 05, 2023 12:27 pm
In my testing of DDS PF '24, I've observed that while the game manages to maintain a balance in player ratings across multiple seasons, the method it employs differs significantly from real-life football dynamics, particularly the NFL. Here's a breakdown of my observations (just my thoughts as understand many including those that work hard to make this game may not share these same observations at all):
In DDS PF '24, players experience a gradual progression until they reach around 30 years of age, followed by an equally slow regression. This results in players having exceptionally long careers compared to the NFL.
- Comparison with NFL Rosters: Current active NFL rosters typically have around 45 players aged 33 or older (excluding less athletic positions of QB, P and K). In contrast, after simulating 15 seasons in DDS PF '24, I found 183 players aged 33 or older on active rosters. Even with the regression set to "VERY HIGH" for all seasons, this number only drops to around 140. So "old" players remain big parts of rosters at levels over 300% higher than real life player aging models would suggest. Also game sort of seems to articually filter out old players by retiring a lot of guys at their peak (very common in game to see players retiring at 34 for example but still rated 85+ ovr and performing great). These figures would probably be even worse if players more commonly retired out of lack of ability.
- Impact on Draft Classes: The extended player careers in DDS PF '24 necessitate weaker draft classes to maintain talent balance. Consequently, most drafted players struggle to secure playing time, as they can't compete with the seasoned players aged 28-33 since they start their careers at such low ratings. This is in stark contrast to the NFL, where younger players are a core part of roster building, and veterans are less common as they struggle to remain at their athletic peak and compete with the younger players. With the exception of a few positions, athletic ability plays a huge part and is impacted by aging more so than other sports. And injuries in football play a more impactful rule in player talent changes. This lack of real-life aging makes drafting in this game less interesting given the lack of impact for most of the draft class.
- Predictability: The current model is highly predictable from a player to player standpoint. For instance, a player drafted with an 80+ OVR rating remains elite until around 35. Conversely, a player with a 70 OVR never really develops into a superstar. A more dynamic system for progression and regression would enhance the gameplay experience. Predicting a specific player's career arc in rating changes can be done with extreme accuracy and there are no real "surprise" player development stories to watch unfold or challenging roster-building development where your star play regresses very quickly over a couple of seasons earlier than expected (as happens in football)
In conclusion, while I understand that addressing this might not be a fix for first access, I believe long term it's essential for the game to simulate player careers more authentically, reflecting the realities of human aging and the nature of the sport. This isn't just about mirroring the NFL but about capturing the essence of football and player development and present a more authentic roster-building environment to those who want to be a GM and be faced with more impactful draft classes and more unpredictable challenges in terms of what players to sign to extension at risk of them regressing.
In DDS PF '24, players experience a gradual progression until they reach around 30 years of age, followed by an equally slow regression. This results in players having exceptionally long careers compared to the NFL.
- Comparison with NFL Rosters: Current active NFL rosters typically have around 45 players aged 33 or older (excluding less athletic positions of QB, P and K). In contrast, after simulating 15 seasons in DDS PF '24, I found 183 players aged 33 or older on active rosters. Even with the regression set to "VERY HIGH" for all seasons, this number only drops to around 140. So "old" players remain big parts of rosters at levels over 300% higher than real life player aging models would suggest. Also game sort of seems to articually filter out old players by retiring a lot of guys at their peak (very common in game to see players retiring at 34 for example but still rated 85+ ovr and performing great). These figures would probably be even worse if players more commonly retired out of lack of ability.
- Impact on Draft Classes: The extended player careers in DDS PF '24 necessitate weaker draft classes to maintain talent balance. Consequently, most drafted players struggle to secure playing time, as they can't compete with the seasoned players aged 28-33 since they start their careers at such low ratings. This is in stark contrast to the NFL, where younger players are a core part of roster building, and veterans are less common as they struggle to remain at their athletic peak and compete with the younger players. With the exception of a few positions, athletic ability plays a huge part and is impacted by aging more so than other sports. And injuries in football play a more impactful rule in player talent changes. This lack of real-life aging makes drafting in this game less interesting given the lack of impact for most of the draft class.
- Predictability: The current model is highly predictable from a player to player standpoint. For instance, a player drafted with an 80+ OVR rating remains elite until around 35. Conversely, a player with a 70 OVR never really develops into a superstar. A more dynamic system for progression and regression would enhance the gameplay experience. Predicting a specific player's career arc in rating changes can be done with extreme accuracy and there are no real "surprise" player development stories to watch unfold or challenging roster-building development where your star play regresses very quickly over a couple of seasons earlier than expected (as happens in football)
In conclusion, while I understand that addressing this might not be a fix for first access, I believe long term it's essential for the game to simulate player careers more authentically, reflecting the realities of human aging and the nature of the sport. This isn't just about mirroring the NFL but about capturing the essence of football and player development and present a more authentic roster-building environment to those who want to be a GM and be faced with more impactful draft classes and more unpredictable challenges in terms of what players to sign to extension at risk of them regressing.